2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Estimation of stress accumulation distribution toward predicting large crustal earthquakes
| Project/Area Number |
18K03809
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 17040:Solid earth sciences-related
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| Research Institution | Japan, Meteorological Research Institute (2020-2021)
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (2018-2019) |
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Principal Investigator |
Noda Akemi 気象庁気象研究所, 地震津波研究部, 研究官 (80793992)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
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| Keywords | 地殻内地震 / 歪みエネルギー / GNSS / 2016年熊本地震 / 地震シナリオ |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
To understand the mechanism of earthquake generation, it is important to know the state of stress accumulation in the Earth's crust. However, some challenges remain in achieving this goal. In this study, the elastic/inelastic strain analysis method, which is an important basic theory for estimating stress accumulation, was modified to improve the estimation accuracy. It was also shown that shear strain energy change is an effective parameter as an indicator of stress accumulation/release, and the shear strain energy change estimated from observation data is related to seismic activity.
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| Free Research Field |
地震発生物理学
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
地殻内地震の発生予測は，これまで活断層調査等に基づいた過去の地震発生履歴という経験的情報に依存してきたが，経験のない地震を予測することはできなかった．それに対し，地震発生の物理モデルが明らかになれば，それに基づいて未知の地震イベントを予測することが可能となる．本研究課題では，測地データや地震データという活断層とは全く独立の情報に基づく物理モデルによって地殻内地震の発生を理解することを目指して，観測データから応力蓄積を推定するための解析手法の改良，応力蓄積を表す新たな指標の提案を行った．
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