2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Economic Impact of Seafarer Shortages in Coastal Shipping and Assessment of Mitigation Policy
| Project/Area Number |
18K04391
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 22050:Civil engineering plan and transportation engineering-related
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| Research Institution | Kobe University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2018-04-01 – 2023-03-31
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| Keywords | 内航海運 / 船員需給 / 船舶需給 / コーホート分析 / 産業連関分析 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
This study sequentially estimated (1) the number of seafarers shortage and the timing of the shortage, (2) the number of vessels that will be unable to operate due to the shortage, (3) the volume of cargo that will be unable to be transported due to the suspension of vessel operations, and (4) the economic losses that will occur due to the suspension of cargo transport. As a result, depending on the scenario, the number of seafarer shortages could be several hundred between 2025 and 2030. If effective countermeasures are not implemented, it is estimated that this could reduce Japan's GDP by several tens of billions of yen. The study indicates that recent efforts by the industry and the government have been effective in reducing the shortage of seafarers but are not yet sufficient to eliminate it.
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| Free Research Field |
土木計画学
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本研究により船員不足がもたらす経済的影響は，不足１人あたりおよそ１億円であり，これは事前の想定よりも大きいことが明らかとなった．また複数の将来シナリオに基づいた推計により将来予測される船員不足とその経済的影響が明らかとなった．様々検討されている船員不足解消策はいずれも費用対効果が大きいことが推察される結果を得た点に意義がある．
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