2018 Fiscal Year Research-status Report
Disaster simulation by using massive supply-chain data
| Project/Area Number |
18K04615
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| Research Institution | University of Hyogo |
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Principal Investigator |
井上 寛康 兵庫県立大学, シミュレーション学研究科, 准教授 (60418499)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
藤原 義久 兵庫県立大学, シミュレーション学研究科, 教授 (50358892)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2018-04-01 – 2021-03-31
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| Keywords | ネットワーク / サプライチェーン / 災害 / 東日本大震災 / 南海トラフ地震 |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
This project examines how production losses caused by natural disasters propagate to regions not directly hit through the supply chains of firms. We use the actual supply chains of nearly one million firms in Japan and an agent-based model to estimate the direct and total economic effects of the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. We then employ the same model to predict the effect of the Nankai earthquake, a mega earthquake predicted to hit major industrial cities in Japan in the near future. We find that the indirect effects of the disasters on production (10.6% of GDP in the case of the Nankai earthquake) are significantly larger than their direct effects (0.5%). Our simulation analyses to compare the actual network with hypothetical
networks suggest that these substantial indirect effects are more prominent when supply chains are characterized by scale-free properties, difficulty in substitution among intermediate products, and the complexity caused by cycles.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.
Reason
当初計画どおりシミュレーターを用いて災害の経済に与える影響について検討している．すでにディスカッションペーパーにて公表しているなど，当初の予定どおりの進捗状況である．
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
今後も研究計画に沿って，多様なシナリオによる検討をする．すでに過去に実際に起きた地震や，想定しうる人工的な地震・津波の検討を始めている．
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| Causes of Carryover |
海外共同研究者との議論のためにドイツでの滞在が研究計画に含まれていたが，これに係る支出が次年度にずれこんだため．今年度の予算はほぼ旅費を予定していたため，繰り越しが大きく発生している．しかしながら今年度に問題なく支出される．
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