Evaluating various climate scenarios considering interaction between socioeconomic and climate systems

2020 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 18K11754
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 64060:Environmental policy and social systems-related
• Research Institution: Nagasaki University
• Principal Investigator: MATSUMOTO Ken'ichi 長崎大学, 水産・環境科学総合研究科(環境), 准教授 (00534570)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 松村 悠子 大阪大学, 経営企画オフィス, 特任助教 (80832063)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2021-03-31
• Keywords: 気候変動 / 気候変動影響 / 緩和策 / 応用一般均衡モデル / 社会経済システム / 気候システム / 相互作用 / 気候モデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this study, a new analytical model that takes into account the interaction between the socioeconomic system and the climate system was developed to evaluate the socioeconomic impacts of future climate change and climate change measures at the global level. First, the study extracted the factors that play an important role in the interaction between the two systems through a literature review. Based on the extracted factors, we constructed a module to link the "computable general equilibrium model" and the "Earth systems model of intermediate complexity," and developed a new model that integrates the two models through the module for linkage. The model was then applied to evaluate the socioeconomic impact of a decline in labor productivity due to heat stress under climate change.

Free Research Field

環境経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究の成果の1つである応用一般均衡モデルと中程度に複雑な地球システムモデルを連携した新たな分析モデルは、本研究が対象とした気候変動・気候変動緩和策の分析のみならず、気候変動適応策の分析など、広く気候変動および関連分野の研究に応用できるため、大きな学術的波及効果が期待できる。加えて、政策面でも、パリ協定の2℃目標の意義・目標達成に向けた戦略を示し、国際的な気候変動対策の促進に貢献することが可能となる。