2020 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

"China Trade Shock" and the U.S. Manufacturing Industry: Worker / Middle-class / International Trade Policy / Region

Research Project

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Project/Area Number	18K11827
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
Allocation Type	Multi-year Fund
Section	一般
Review Section	Basic Section 80010:Area studies-related
Research Institution	Rikkyo University
Principal Investigator	YAMAGATA Hiroyuki 立教大学, 経済学部, 教授 (80389402)
Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha)	中島醸拓殖大学, 政経学部, 准教授 (00401670) 藤木剛康和歌山大学, 経済学部, 准教授 (70283950) 河音琢郎立命館大学, 経済学部, 教授 (90273870)
Project Period (FY)	2018-04-01 – 2021-03-31
Keywords	アメリカ / トランプ政権 / バイデン政権 / 経済政策 / 製造業労働者 / 中間層 / トランプ減税 / 通商政策
Outline of Final Research Achievements	This project surveyed the economic backgrounds of the Trump administration and the characteristics of its policies. The advanced industrial structure, job polarization, and labor market dynamism in the Rust Belt region, fiscal policy and international trade policy are analyzed. Although the advanced industrial structure and job polarization in the Rust Belt have been progressed, this has delayed the U.S. average. The situation of the labor market in the Rust Belt has not been sufficiently improved. The Trump administration could not have achieved remarkable outcomes in the fiscal policy except for Trump’s tax cut. Although the Trump administration was chaotic in the international trade policy, political consensus that targets the domestic economic growth and rescues the middle class was formed. The change of fiscal policy and international trade policy shows that the characteristics of the U.S. economic policies have transformed from a hegemonic country to great geopolitical power.
Free Research Field	国際経済学
Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements	世界に衝撃を与えたアメリカ・トランプ政権誕生の経済的背景とその政策展開を、米ラストベルト地域の産業構造高度化、就業構造分極化、苦境にある労働市場、内政と外政の要である財政政策と通商政策の構造変化に着目して研究した。研究成果の概要で述べたトランプ政権期の経済状態と政策展開はバイデン政権でも変化していない。本研究は、バイデン政権でも継承されるアメリカ中間層の経済的苦境と寛容であった覇権国型政策体系から、自国経済と雇用を最重要視するという地政学的大国型経済政策体系への移行という、バイデン政権のありようを見通す視座を明確にしたといえる。