Elucidation of the Continuation Mechanism of Overseas Military Bases - Path Dependence Analysis

2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 18K12721
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 06020:International relations-related
• Research Institution: Tokyo Institute of Technology
• Principal Investigator: Kawana Shinji 東京工業大学, リベラルアーツ研究教育院, 教授 (10611072)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: 米軍基地 / 沖縄 / 安全保障 / 経路依存

Outline of Final Research Achievements

By examining the realignment process of U.S. military bases in Japan that has occurred since the late 1960s, we have analyzed the issue of "path dependency" that affects the persistence mechanism of bases. The concentration of bases in Okinawa today was not only shaped by the external environment, such as geographical conditions and threats but was also influenced to a certain extent by political factors, including the anti-base movement on the mainland. The political cost of transferring bases to Okinawa rose after Okinawa's return to the administrative authority. Therefore, the transfer of bases from mainland Japan to Okinawa occurred just before administrative authority was returned. Depending on the timing and sequence of political events surrounding the bases, they could have been located in very different ways than they are today.

Free Research Field

国際政治学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究は、基地政治研究（Base Politics）の発展に貢献した。米国の海外基地はある時点において戦略上、不要とされていたものが「長命」となり、それとは逆に重要とされていたものが「短命」に終わることがある。このことは、従来の基地政治モデル、すなわち設置国の戦略や予算制約、あるいは接受国側の政治的受容性に対する認識に着目するだけでは説明できない。当初は明確な目標をもたず、またごく小さな基地として誕生したとしても、一定の条件の下ではそれは時間の経過とともに成長し、他の基地との相互作用を繰り返しながら当初の目的を上書きしつつ、あるものは環境に適した機能を備えていくのである。