2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Development of methodology for evaluation supply and demand in community healthcare: Construction of prediction model using NDB

Research Project

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Project/Area Number	18K17308
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
Allocation Type	Multi-year Fund
Review Section	Basic Section 58010:Medical management and medical sociology-related
Research Institution	Institute for Health Economics and Policy, Association for Health Economics Rsearch and Social Insurance and Welfare
Principal Investigator	Ishikawa Tomoki 一般財団法人医療経済研究・社会保険福祉協会(医療経済研究機構(研究部)), 研究部, 主任研究員 (90802661)
Project Period (FY)	2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
Keywords	地域医療 / レセプトデータ / 大規模医療データベース / NDB / 二次利用
Outline of Final Research Achievements	The response of healthcare delivery systems to demographic changes such as aging and declining populations is a challenge for other countries. In Japan, which faces this social challenge ahead of other countries, there is an academic as well as social demand to evaluate the supply and demand of medical care from the perspective of regional medical care. The main objective of this study was to develop an analytical method to provide information to support strategic planning of medical care, and the research was conducted using official statistical information and a receipt database. In particular, as the use of the latter database has become more widespread, this study examined its potential for use. Specific topics addressed included future estimates of the medical supply-demand balance, the relationship between medical resources and accessibility, and cost-effectiveness assessment, and were reported in papers and conference presentations.
Free Research Field	医療経済・政策学、医療情報学
Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements	本研究では、医療資源配置の将来的な需給推計による、将来的に需給不均衡となる恐れがある地域を特定する事が可能となった。地域ごとの人口構造や疾患構造の情報に、医療機関の地理的情報や、患者の受療動向に関する情報を加味した推計推計モデルの構築を提案した。更に、患者の受療動向をより精緻に把握するためのデータソースとして、NDB等レセプトデータベースの利用を検討した。医療施設や画像診断機器、遠隔診療といったその制度設計のあり方が議論されている医療資源を中心に、利用実態について記述的に報告した。本研究で提案する分析手法は、マクロの医療政策に加え地域の医療計画策定を支援する分析手法として応用可能性がある。