Association of frailty Trajectories with Medical and Long-Term Care Costs

2019 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 18K17409
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 58030:Hygiene and public health-related: excluding laboratory approach
• Research Institution: National Institute for Environmental Studies (2019); Tokyo Metropolitan Geriatric Hospital and Institute of Gerontology (2018)
• Principal Investigator: Taniguchi Yu 国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 環境リスク・健康研究センター, 主任研究員 (40636578)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2020-03-31
• Keywords: frailty score / trajectory / 類型化 / 死亡リスク / 医療費 / 介護費

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Using up to 12 years of repeated-measures data, we identified aging trajectories for an index in frailty score among older Japanese and examined whether these trajectories were associated with all-cause mortality and healthcare costs. The total number of observations was 6373. Frailty was defined by criteria from Fried’s phenotype. We identified four aging trajectories for frailty. Specifically, 6.5%, 47.3%, 30.3%, and 16.0% of participants were in the high, second, third, and low trajectory groups, respectively. As compared with the low trajectory group, the high trajectory group had greater risks of death. Medical and long-term care costs greatly increased after age 80 years in the second and third trajectory groups. Medical and care needs greatly increased for the second and third trajectory groups when they progressed from pre-frailty to frailty.

Free Research Field

公衆衛生

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究から、地域在住高齢者がFrailtyに至るプロセスには異なるパターンが存在することが明らかになり、後期高齢期にpre-frailtyの状態を経てFrailtyに至る47.3%の集団や後期高齢期にrobustからpre-frailtyに至る30.3%の集団が特定された。後期高齢期にpre-frailtyやFrailtyに至る集団の死亡リスク及び社会保障費の上昇が明らかになったことから、地域在住高齢者に対する健康増進施策において、後期高齢期のFrailty及びpre-frailty対策を推進することにより、高齢者本人の健康長寿と我が国の社会保障費の安定に寄与できる可能性が示唆された。