Statistical evaluation of low-dose radiation effects allowing for measurement errors

2020 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 18K18019
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 60030:Statistical science-related
• Research Institution: Radiation Effects Research Foundation
• Principal Investigator: Misumi Munechika 公益財団法人放射線影響研究所, 統計部, 副部長 (90457432)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2021-03-31
• Keywords: 放射線疫学 / 測定誤差 / 統計的方法 / 線量反応

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In radiation epidemiology, when the radiation dose-response is estimated using the radiation dose estimate with measurement errors, the shape of the dose-response curve is affected by correcting the measurement error without ignoring it even in the low dose range. Simulation studies based on the setting of epidemiological data of Atomic bomb survivors show that measurement errors affect the shape of the dose-response and that the estimated shape of the dose-response could be different by the methods for the measurement error correction. Furthermore, through discussions based on the results, in collaboration with members of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), a paper that predicts the lifetime risk of radiation in populations around the world, which can be an important source for future radiation protection discussions, has been published.

Free Research Field

生物統計学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究の成果により、低い線量域でも被曝放射線量推定値の測定誤差の影響を補正する必要性と、測定誤差の線量反応曲線の形への影響も考慮した解析が必要であることを示した。原爆被爆者の研究は放射線による死亡やがん罹患リスクの量反応曲線を直線で考える根拠となってきた。その最新のがん罹患率の線量反応にこれまでの報告と異なる結果が出たことについて、シミュレーションによって説明する試みを紹介することで、放射線影響研究の研究者と議論した。その結果として、国際放射線防護委員会（ICRP）の主要メンバーと放射線防護基準の議論で資料となる科学論文を発表した。