2018 Fiscal Year Research-status Report
From Resource-Led Export Booms to Pro-Poor Growth: Reformulating Industrial Policy in Africa
| Project/Area Number |
18K18266
|
|---|
| Research Institution | Nagoya University |
|---|
Principal Investigator |
|
|---|
| Project Period (FY) |
2018-04-01 – 2021-03-31
|
| Keywords | pro-poor growth / deindustrialization / structural change / machine learning / input-output table |
|---|
| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
I was primarily involved in data collection and database building. Research activities focused on exploring the link between GDP and structural change and the use of nighttime lights data and machine learning techniques to predict Africa’s premature deindustrialization. So far, I have constructed an input-output table for the DRC for the year 2013, which was further combined with the tables of previous years (1970, 1987, 1997, 2005) to constitute the largest dataset of input-output tables from developing Sub-Saharan African countries. I then apply the field of influence of coefficients and economic decompositions to explore long-term features of structural changes and deindustrialization. This study appears to be the first attempt to thoroughly examine premature deindustrialization using inter-industry linkages. I delivered an oral presentation of the key findings of the project's preliminary data analysis at the 17th International Conference of the Japan Economic Policy Association. My paper on “structural change and premature deindustrialization in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 1970-2013: An Input-Output Perspective” was accepted for oral presentation at the 27th International Input-Output Conference at Glasgow. A follow-up paper entitled “Industrial growth with poverty reduction and equity? Prediction from nightlights”, has also been accepted for presentation at the UNU-WIDER Development Conference on "Transforming Economies for Better Jobs".
|
| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
1: Research has progressed more than it was originally planned.
Reason
As described in the Summary of Research Achievements section, I have collected the necessary data and information for the empirical analysis. I have constructed the input-output tables faster than I planned because I gained a lot of experience in building macro datasets over the last ten years.
|
| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
During FY2019, I plan to take a stock of the past and current industrial policies and development strategies that were designed and implemented in Sub-Saharan Africa since structural adjustment policies. Them I will classify these policies into several different motives for them. At the same time, I will develop policy analysis tools, particularly a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The CGE model will be linked to the microsimulation model in a top-down fashion and capture the most important channels through which growth and redistribution policies affect welfare. I will conduct simulation for DRC and Chad.
|
| Causes of Carryover |
The main reason funds remained were that I have managed to collect important secondary data from existing publicly available database. Now that I need to collect primary data to complete the construction of the dataset, the remaining amount of money left over will be used to purchase additional data.
|
