An evacuation decision-making model incorporating cognitive dissonance

2020 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 18K18563
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Medium-sized Section 7:Economics, business administration, and related fields
• Research Institution: Tohoku University
• Principal Investigator: Kono Tatsuhito 東北大学, 情報科学研究科, 教授 (00344713)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): マス エリック 東北大学, 災害科学国際研究所, 准教授 (30648374) ; 山浦 一保 立命館大学, スポーツ健康科学部, 教授 (80405141) ; 安田 誠宏 関西大学, 環境都市工学部, 准教授 (60378916)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-06-29 – 2021-03-31
• Keywords: 津波避難 / 高潮避難 / 認知的不協和 / 正常性バイアス / Akerlof Dickensの経済心理学モデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We built the refuge decision making model in consideration of personal rationality and cognitive dissonance. We performed the derivation of the jitters of the inhabitants every area and the quantitative analysis of the refuge rate using the model and refuge action data at the time of the Great East Japan Earthquake. As a result, we show that the jitters of the local inhabitants who experienced tsunami inundation damage are large. In addition, an elderly person had larger jitters than the youngers, and the giving and receiving of the tsunami warning affected the jitters.
About the high tide refuge, we carried out the questionary survey about the refuge action at the time of the typhoon No.21 in 2018. We can show that the estimated death-probability is lower due to the influence of cognitive dissonance.

Free Research Field

応用経済学、都市計画

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

災害時の避難行動について，これまで認知的不協和が介在していると指摘があるものの，数理モデル化されておらず定量分析も行われていなかった． 本研究は， Akerlof・Dickens (1982)の経済心理学モデルをベースに避難行動をモデル化して，その定量分析を，実際の避難データを用いてパラメータ推定した研究である．避難行動のメカニズムが数理的に把握できると，災害政策の評価をそのメカニズムとともに示せる．