Comprehensive scenario formulation and disaster prevention and mitigation strategy for mega-city complex disasters originating from complex disasters

2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 18KT0012
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 特設分野
• Research Field: Intensification of Artifact Systems
• Research Institution: Yokohama National University
• Principal Investigator: Miyake Atsumi 横浜国立大学, 大学院環境情報研究院, 教授 (60174140)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 伊里 友一朗 横浜国立大学, 大学院環境情報研究院, 准教授 (90794016) ; 塩田 謙人 横浜国立大学, 先端科学高等研究院, 特任教員(助教) (30827837)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-07-18 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: 防災減災戦略 / リスクアセスメント / Natech

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We analyzed the current status of risk assessment techniques for overcoming complex crises, and constructed a risk / crisis management method that enables comprehensive scenario assumptions and damage predictions based on them. The results of this research are based on (1) organization of risk assessment elemental technologies from an engineering perspective, (2) construction of a comprehensive scenario assumption scheme for Natech and its damage prediction methodology, and (3) definition of comprehensive social risk, proposal of damage prediction and crisis management system for complex disasters in collaboration with local governments, companies, etc., (4) proposal of management system that enables evacuation guidance of employees and general citizens in the event of a disaster. These results were summarized as a guideline.

Free Research Field

安全工学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

自然災害由来の産業施設災害は国連等国際機関においてもNatechとしてその対応はきわめて大きな課題となっており，都市における総合防災減災計画を検討している例はこれまでなかった。本研究は社会総合リスクという新しい概念に基づいて，これを分析するフレームワークを構築し，防災減災に資する事項をガイドラインとして取りまとめた点に学術的，社会的意義がある。