2009 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Research on Predictability of Typhoon by Dynamic and Thermodynamic Direct Observation using Aircraft
| Project/Area Number |
19201037
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Natural disaster science
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| Research Institution | Japan, Meteorological Research Institute |
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Principal Investigator |
NAKAZAWA Tetsuo Japan, Meteorological Research Institute, 台風研究部, 室長 (20343890)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
BESSHO Kotaro 気象庁気象研究所, 台風研究部, 主任研究官 (00354481)
TSUBOKI Kazuhisa 名古屋大学, 地球水循環研究センター, 教授 (90222140)
SAITO Kazuo 気象庁気象研究所, 予報研究部, 室長 (70391224)
ENOMOTO Takeshi 海洋研究開発機構, 地球シミュレータセンター (10358765)
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| Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) |
HARA Masahiro 気象庁気象研究所, 予報研究部, 主任研究官 (30354450)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2007 – 2009
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| Keywords | 台風 / 最適観測法 / 航空機観測 / 予測可能性 / アンサンブル予報 / THORPEX / 台風の進路予報 / インパクト実験 |
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| Research Abstract |
The impact of direct airborn observations for typhoons in 2008 on the track forecast has been investigated. The result shows that the impact was positive in all models. However, the impact was small in the JMA or ECMWF models, which perform forecast performances better and it was large in the NCEP model, which has more error in track forecast. The result also suggests that the data assimilation near the center of the storm is critical for the track forecast. One of the research objectives in this project was to confirm the feasibility of the targeted observation. On this regard it is not fully confirmed, mainly because the observations are limited in two typhoon cases, Sinlaku and Jangmi. It has been revealed that the data assimilation over the high sensitive region did not give better forecast.
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