2009 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Prediction of short- and long-term stock fluctuations of Japanese common squid, Todarodes pacificus related to climate change
| Project/Area Number |
19380105
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
General fisheries
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| Research Institution | Hokkaido University |
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Principal Investigator |
SAKURAI Yasunori Hokkaido University, 大学院・水産科学研究院, 教授 (30196133)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
YAMAMOTO Jun 北海道大学, 北方生物圏フィールド科学センター, 助教 (10292004)
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| Research Collaborator |
MORI Ken (独)水産総合研究センター, 北海道区水産研究所, 室長 (10443384)
KIDOKORO Hideaki (独)水産総合研究センター, 日本海区水産研究所, 主任研究員 (50371894)
GOTO Tsuneo (独)水産総合研究センター, 日本海区水産研究所, 主任研究員 (10371890)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2007 – 2009
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| Keywords | 水産学 / 資源・資源管理 / 海洋環境変化 / 気候変動 / スルメイカ / 再生産仮説 / 資源変動予測 |
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| Research Abstract |
We used the new reproductive hypothesis to explain and predict the stock structure or stock fluctuation related to climatic regime shifts and global warming scenario during the 20^<th>-21^<st> Century. We conclude that short and long-term change of T. pacificus stock can be explained and predicted by physical parameters such as SST, and bottom topography during the spawning period based on this new reproductive hypothesis. Based on this method, we can then monitor the trend of stock fluctuation and structural change such as a seasonal shift of the spawning period related to abrupt changes of the inferred spawning areas. As an example, we present how to monitor the recent seasonal changes of inferred spawning areas and predict the stock condition of the next year cohort. Further, we try to predict the fate of T. pacificus during the 21st Century based on the Global Warning Scenario (IPCC, 2007) using the Earth Simulation System (FRCGC, Frontier Research Center of Global change, Japan). The inferred main spawning grounds still occur from the southern Japan Sea and the East China Sea by 2099. However, the peak of spawning period will shift from October-February in 2005 to November-March in 2050, and December-April in 2099.
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Research Products
(20 results)
