2009 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
A study on the effects of taxation on the household's stock trading behavior using individual data
| Project/Area Number |
19530282
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Public finance/Monetary economics
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| Research Institution | The University of Kitakyushu |
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Principal Investigator |
HAYASHIDA Minoru The University of Kitakyushu, 経済学部, 教授 (20198873)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
ONO Hiroyuki (50285459)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2007 – 2009
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| Keywords | 株式税制 |
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| Research Abstract |
There is not yet enough quantitative research to date on the effect of taxation on investors' stock trading behavior in Japan. To fill out the gap, this study, in its first phase, examined the issue, using individual data from the 2000 survey of the National Survey on Securities Savings conducted by the Japan Institute for Securities Information & Public Relations. The institution of dividends taxation in 2000 was that, depending on the dividend payment per brand of stock, there existed three ways of paying the tax : withholding at source, self-assessed payment in the income tax filing, and the option of the two. It is this complexity that makes it possible to estimate the marginal tax rates varying from household to household. Given that the explanatory variables are ordered qualitative responses with known thresholds and that there is no upper threshold in the top code, the demand for stocks and holding period are regressed on the estimated tax rates, together with total savings, amo
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unt of current stock holding, and age in ordered Tobit models. It is found that a higher tax rate reduces the demand for stocks and makes the holding period longer.
Our study in its first phase examined the 2000 survey of the National Survey on Securities Savings, only. So, we are not sure that the above results hold for the households for a longer period. To address this problem, we used the six surveys from 1991 through 2006 and examined the effect of the tax rate on the desire stocks and holding period. We included the dummy variable for the tax reform in 2003 as the explanatory variable in the regression. As a result, we found the negative effect of the dividend tax on the household's desire to purchase the stock. The tax reform in 2003 has had the positive impact toward the same desire. We also detected that the dividend tax makes the holding period longer, using ordered Tobit model.
The former finding implies that the reduction in the tax rate is a correct policy to succeed in the goal of "From Savings to Investment", and the scheduled tax raise in 2012 would largely decrease the demand for stocks. Less
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