2009 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Mathematical theory of structured population dynamics and its applications to mathematical models for infectious diseases
| Project/Area Number |
19540116
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
General mathematics (including Probability theory/Statistical mathematics)
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo |
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Principal Investigator |
INABA Hisashi The University of Tokyo, 大学院・数理科学研究科, 准教授 (80282531)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2007 – 2009
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| Keywords | 感染症 / 人口 / 数理モデル / 基本再生産数 / 微分方程式 |
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| Research Abstract |
We formulated structured population dynamics models for infectious diseases to analyse their mathematical structures, and developed key ideas in mathematical epidemiology as the basic reproduction number and its derivatives. In particular, we have shown the estimation methods of the basic reproduction number and relations between the basic reproduction number and the host population growth based on an age-structured infectious disease dynamics model in a stable population. Moreover, we developed the state-reproduction number theory, by which we cleared the eradication condition by case isolation of symptomatic infecteds. Subsequently, we have shown a new approach to formulate the basic reproduction number and the intrinsic growth rate of infecteds in a heterogeneous environment.
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