2010 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Studies on Long-term Population Projection for Regions and the Mutual Relationship between Population and Economic Fluctuations
| Project/Area Number |
19730202
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Field |
Economic policy
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| Research Institution | Osaka Prefecture University |
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Principal Investigator |
YOSHIDA Motonori Osaka Prefecture University, 経済学部, 准教授 (60360046)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2007 – 2010
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| Keywords | 将来人口推計 / Random Scenario Method / 人口流出 / Gravity model / 生産効率性 / 生産要素の余剰 / DEA (Data envelopment analysis) |
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| Research Abstract |
First, I conducted causal analysis of out-migration from Osaka prefecture to other 46 prefectures. The results indicate that transportation distance and abundance of nature had a negative effect on demographic shift, while substantiality of life safety net and old-age welfare services a positive one. In addition, this tendency is very remarkable for the old-age generation. Next, I investigated the efficiency and the redundancy on production factors on 24 manufacturing industries by prefecture. The results show the following : Western Japan industries perform relatively efficiently, large amounts of redundancy on productive factors exist in key industries, and so do the regions, including Kanto, whose economic scales are large.
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