Economic growth in aging society with new technology

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19H01466
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 07010:Economic theory-related
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: Fukuda Shin-ichi 東京大学, 大学院経済学研究科(経済学部), 教授 (00221531)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: 技術進歩 / 少子高齢化 / 人口減少 / 経済成長

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study analyzed the impact of population decline and technological progress on macroeconomic growth both theoretically and empirically through a reexamination of economic growth theory. The study first examined economic growth under a declining population using the framework of traditional theory, taking into account, among other things, that equilibrium tends to be a corner solution under a negative population growth rate. Second, using a model of economic growth in which new technology substitutes for labor, the study examined economic growth under a declining population. In addition, to verify the validity of these theoretical analyses, we conducted a calibration and examined their relevance to the Japanese economy. We also empirically estimated the impact of population decline and technological progress on macroeconomic variables, primarily for the Japanese economy.

Free Research Field

マクロ経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

わが国では、少子高齢化が未曽有のスピードで進行することが見込まれている。人口の急速な減少は、労働人口の面から潜在成長率を低下させるだけでなく、国内市場の縮小を通じて総需要を抑える恐れがある。しかし、これまでの研究では、少子高齢化や人口減少の進行がマクロ経済成長にいかなる影響を与えるかは、理論的にも実証的にも必ずしも自明ではない。そこで、本研究では、人口減少下での経済成長を考察すると同時に、新技術が労働力を代替する経済成長モデルを分析し、その日本経済への含意を明らかにした。