2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

The relative importance of population declines and the Government's fiscal support in the rural areas as causes of the decrease in emigration into the large metropolitan areas during the 70s.

Research Project

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Project/Area Number	19H01495
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
Allocation Type	Single-year Grants
Section	一般
Review Section	Basic Section 07040:Economic policy-related
Research Institution	Asian Growth Research Institute
Principal Investigator	HATTA Tatsuo 公益財団法人アジア成長研究所, 研究部, 所長 (70008647)
Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha)	戴二彪公益財団法人アジア成長研究所, 研究部, 教授 (20300840) 田村一軌公益財団法人アジア成長研究所, 調査部, 主任研究員 (90426049)
Project Period (FY)	2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
Keywords	高度経済成長 / 大都市への人口流入 / 中・高卒者の推移 / 高度政策 / 地域間再分配政策
Outline of Final Research Achievements	The 1960s saw a massive population shift from rural areas to metropolitan areas, one of the factors that made rapid economic growth possible. On the other hand, since the early 1970s, the number of people moving to metropolitan areas has declined sharply, and the rate of economic growth has also declined. This study quantitatively analyzes the factors behind this decline in the number of migrants. It shows that the decline in population in rural areas and the decrease in the number of middle- and high-school graduates were not the main factors. Half of the reduction in population movement during this period can be explained by (1) the decrease in the income gap between rural and urban areas and (2) the decrease in the gap in social capital stock, both of which were results of the government's redistributive policies towards the rural areas. A decrease in the ratio of effective job openings in both regions can explain the remainder.
Free Research Field	社会科学（分科：経済学、細目：経済政策）
Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements	近年、中国などのアジア諸国は、1960年代の日本と同様に、大都市への大量の人口移動を伴う高度成長を遂げたが、それら諸国の多くでは、高度成長の成果を大都市から地方へ再分配する政策が行われている。本研究によれば、日本における70年代の急激な人口移動の減少の主因は、当時採用された地方への再分配政策がもたらした地方の生活水準の相対的改善であった。この分析は、急激な成長率の低下を避けようとする現在のアジア諸国に有用である。