2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Evaluation method for water related disaster risk considering uncertainty of rainfall patterns, rainfall-runoff and flooding
| Project/Area Number |
19H02241
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 22040:Hydroengineering-related
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| Research Institution | Hokkaido University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
泉 典洋 北海道大学, 工学研究院, 教授 (10260530)
清水 康行 北海道大学, 工学研究院, 教授 (20261331)
星野 剛 北海道大学, 工学研究院, 博士研究員 (40750625)
久加 朋子 富山県立大学, 工学部, 准教授 (50751236)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
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| Keywords | 気候変動 / 降雨 / 氾濫 / 降雨流出 / 不確実性 / d4PDF / 流域治水 / リスク評価 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
1)Based on a large amount of rainfall data, we classified the causes of extreme rainfall into thermodynamic and dynamic aspects, and it was also found that the increase in future rainfall in mountainous areas is related to dynamic aspect in addition to thermodynamic aspect. 2)We quantified the degree of freedom of extreme rainfall in the climate system, proposed a method for predicting future changes in stochastic rainfall. 3)Based on the relationship between total rainfall and rainfall within the flood arrival time and the combined occurrence probability of the two, we showed the existence of rainfall that causes high frequency and high inundation, which could not be understood by the probability evaluation of actual total rainfall. 4)We made it possible to discuss the efficient investment ratios for river management for main and tributary rivers, considering the uncertainty of the damage reduction effect of river management caused by the spatial distribution of rainfall.
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| Free Research Field |
気象学，水文学，河川工学，情報学，統計学
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
過去気候と将来気候のそれぞれにおいて，数千年間分に亘る大量アンサンブルデータを用いた，物理上生起しうる極端降雨現象の振れ幅と，時空間分布を組み込んだ洪水リスクの2つの評価手法を構築した．当該手法は，”観測実績と極値統計理論”ならびに”物理モデルによるアンサンブル計算"により導かれる極端降雨現象の取りうる幅の両者は整合するという科学的成果に立脚している．この成果は，日本における気候変動を踏まえた治水計画への転換を実現するものである．
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