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2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Study for the Better PPP Urban Railway Projects in Asian Megacities

Research Project

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Project/Area Number 19H02257
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 22050:Civil engineering plan and transportation engineering-related
Research InstitutionNational Graduate Institute for Policy Studies

Principal Investigator

Morichi Shigeru  政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 名誉教授 (40016473)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 稲村 肇  東北工業大学, 工学部, 名誉教授 (50168415)
Project Period (FY) 2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
Keywords都市鉄道 / アジアの大都市交通 / PPP / TOD / 事業スキーム
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Focusing on the fact that many of the PPP (Public-Private Partnerships) railway projects in Asian mega- cities have collapsed, we presented cost conversion methods for various risks, and then presented risk evaluation methods using Monte Carlo simulation for each risk.
Next, regarding the misunderstandings of decision makers related to the bankruptcy, we presented findings on six types of misunderstandings, such as analysis of the possibility of fare revisions, development of methods for grasping the actual situation of development along railway lines, and business schemes for delays in demand settlement.

Free Research Field

国土計画、交通政策、観光政策、インフラ政策、アジアの都市・交通政策など

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

アジア各国での破綻事例を、現地の教授の協力を得て分析をした初めての研究であり、各国の研究者の活動の契機となった。また各国で始まっている多くの都市鉄道事業に対して、各種リスクの分析、運賃設定、沿線都市開発、適正な公的財政支援などに関する知見は実務上も意義があり、研究代表者はバンコクの計画策定、マニラの事業スキームに関し、JICAと両国交通大臣からアドバイスの依頼を受けて対応している。

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Published: 2023-01-30  

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