Bottlenecks and potential of weather index insurance in the agricultural sector

2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19H03069
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 41030:Rural environmental engineering and planning-related
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: YOSHIDA KOSHI 東京大学, 大学院新領域創成科学研究科, 教授 (20420226)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 牧 雅康 福島大学, 食農学類, 准教授 (50375391) ; 本間 香貴 東北大学, 農学研究科, 教授 (60397560) ; 乃田 啓吾 岐阜大学, 応用生物科学部, 准教授 (60646371) ; 増冨 祐司 国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 気候変動適応センター, 室長 (90442699) ; 黒田 久雄 茨城大学, 農学部, 教授 (20205256)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: 農業被害 / 気候変動 / 被害軽減策

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Climate change impacts on rice production systems in northeastern Thailand were evaluated, and the bottlenecks and feasibility of weather index insurance as an adaptation measure were examined. Multiple regression analysis of seasonal precipitation and rice production showed that the period of insurance index (July-September) was appropriate for most provinces with a positive correlation with production. The expected value of insurance payments received by farmers household was calculated based on the frequency of damage, and the frequency of index setting was also evaluated to be generally appropriate. In recent years, the ratio of damage to farmers household income has been decreasing, and the ratio of agricultural damage has been less than 10% since 1994. Therefore, the needs for weather index insurance for rainy season rice was judged to be low.

Free Research Field

農業水利学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究では気候変動適応策としての天候インデックス保険に着目し，タイ東北部における気象要因とコメ生産量との関係および農業被害が農家の世帯生計に及ぼす影響を評価することにより，被害補填効果の見える化と普及阻害要因の特定を行った．また，将来の降水量変動が保険インデックスの設定値に及ぼす影響についても定量化を行っており、このような気象災害に対する被害額の可視化やソフト対策の評価は国や地方行政担当者に対して施策の効果や優先度を評価する重要な判断材料を提供するものと考える．