2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Estimating Excess Mortality Due to Climate Change: A Multi-Country Collaborative Study in Environmental Epidemiology
| Project/Area Number |
19H03900
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 58030:Hygiene and public health-related: excluding laboratory approach
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
金 允姫 東京大学, 大学院医学系研究科(医学部), 准教授 (40746020)
小野塚 大介 京都府立医科大学, 医学(系)研究科(研究院), 講師 (50446829)
ウン クリス・フック・シェン 東京大学, 大学院医学系研究科(医学部), 准教授 (70620409)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
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| Keywords | 気候変動 / 環境疫学 / 過剰死亡 / 下痢症 / 温暖化 / 時系列解析 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
We investigated the extent to which human populations can adapt to temperature rise due to climate change using historical temperature and mortality data. The results indicated that annual average temperature and household air conditioning prevalence reduced mortality risk due to heat. Furthermore, using data from the Tokyo metropolitan area, we elucidated the extent to which temperature rise, induced by the urban heat island effect, amplifies the risk of heat-related mortality. Additionally, we developed a model to quantify the interaction between air pollutant concentrations and temperature in relation to mortality. Furthermore, it was revealed that excess mortality due to gastrointestinal infections until the end of this century will predominantly affect sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
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| Free Research Field |
疫学
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本研究では、気候変動により将来発生する過剰死亡数の推定をより現実的なものにするために必須となる、１）気温上昇に対する人間集団の適応予測モデル開発、２）気温上昇による暑熱影響と光化学オキシダント濃度上昇の交互作用予測モデル開発、３）都市におけるヒートアイランド現象の影響予測モデル開発、４）将来の感染症流行予測モデル開発を行った。推定される超過死亡をもとに政策担当者が適切な適応策を検討するためのエビデンスの提供につながることが期待される。
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