2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Tsunami evacuation model and geospatial information system related the earthquake around Chishima Trench

Research Project

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Project/Area Number	19K01166
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
Allocation Type	Multi-year Fund
Section	一般
Review Section	Basic Section 04020:Human geography-related
Research Institution	Hokkaido University
Principal Investigator	Hashimoto Yuichi 北海道大学, 文学研究院, 教授 (90250399)
Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha)	深田秀実小樽商科大学, 商学部, 教授 (40547866) 塩崎大輔北海道大学, 文学研究院, 専門研究員 (90910399)
Project Period (FY)	2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
Keywords	千島海溝地震 / 避難行動 / 津波 / 情報システム / 階段上昇シミュレーション / 浸水想定域 / 避難困難区域 / GIS
Outline of Final Research Achievements	This study assumes a tsunami caused by a huge earthquake whose epicenter is the Kuril Trench, which has been pointed out to be highly dangerous, and constructs an information integration system for modeling tsunami evacuation behavior in coastal cities using GIS and micro-geodata. moreover the issues related to disaster prevention were clarified. For that purpose,(1) Optimal distribution model of evacuation information, (2) Decision-making model for accepting evacuation information and selecting evacuation destinations, (3) Empirical space model for horizontal movement to evacuation sites (including evacuation buildings), (4) Simulation model for vertical movement in the evacuation building, (5) Stay model inside the evacuation site, and considered them in cooperation with each other. In addition, since the target area is a snowy cold region where the cold in winter is severe, seasonal differences were taken into consideration in the analysis.
Free Research Field	都市地理学
Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements	千島海溝を震源とした巨大地震による津波に関し防災上の課題を明確化した。その際に，GISとマイクロジオデータを用いた津波避難行動モデル化のための情報統合システムの構築方法を提案した。また，その活用方法として，避難開始から避難場所内での滞留までの状況についてのモデル化手法を開発した。さらに，各モデルの結果を連携させて考察を行うことにより，冬季の寒冷が厳しい積雪寒冷地である対象地域では，千島海溝地震による津波災害に関する津波防災上の課題が，都市開発とともに高まっていることを指摘した。