Applications of inductive inference model to preference evolution model and psychological game theory

2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K01540
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 07010:Economic theory-related
• Research Institution: University of Tsukuba
• Principal Investigator: Fukuzumi Masakazu 筑波大学, 人文社会系, 准教授 (90375387)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: ゲーム理論 / 帰納的意思決定理論 / 事例ベース意思決定理論 / 心理的ゲーム理論 / 進化ゲーム理論

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Standard game theory assumes players who make deductive decisions. This study assumes players who follow a hybrid decision-making method, in which inductive decision-making methods are used in addition to deductive decision-making methods in certain proportions, and focuses on their predictive behavior and the results of their application to game theory models. In particular, the robustness of various types of case-based models was confirmed. In addition, we found the beginning of a model construction method in which the hybrid-type player model can unify the results of various types of bounded rationality analysis employed in psychological game theory. We also found a basic modeling method for analyzing the weights of deduction and induction in decision making by exposing them to the selection pressure of evolutionary game theory.

Free Research Field

ゲーム理論

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

ゲーム理論を用いて経済学をはじめとする社会科学は、理論的な分析が大きく進展した。しかし歴史的な側面を重視する社会科学の諸分野との融合や、社会から個人への影響を重視する社会科学との融合はいまだに困難な点が多い。その要因の一つが、個人の意思決定手法に対する諸学問の想定の相違にあると考えられる。ゲーム理論は個人の演繹的な意思決定を想定し、経験を通した帰納的な意思決定や社会からプレイヤーの意思決定への影響を捉える分析手法については、進化ゲーム理論を除いて少なかった。本研究では、演繹と帰納を合わせたハイブリッド型意思決定モデルをゲーム理論に応用し、社会諸科学の融合に向けた基礎理論構築の研究を行った。