2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Bayesian estimation of economic inequality based on median
| Project/Area Number |
19K01581
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 07030:Economic statistics-related
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| Research Institution | Hokkaido University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
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| Keywords | 所得分布 / 中央値 / 経済不平等度 / ベイズ統計学 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In this study, we developed new inequality indices based on median values, adopted the MCMC method as an estimation method for these indices, and developed an estimation algorithm for these indices. The usefulness of inequality indices and statistical methods used for their estimation can be confirmed only when they are applied to real economic data. In this study, we applied the developed indicators and measurement methods to some Japanese data.
The growth incidence curve (GIC) of Ravallion and Chen (2003) and the poverty growth curve (PGC) of Son (2004) are methods for measuring growth rates that take into account changes in income distribution between two time points. In this study, GIC and PGC are examined in detail. The rich growth curve (RGC), which applies the PGC calculation method to the affluent population, is also proposed.
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| Free Research Field |
計量経済学
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
中央値に基づく不平等指標の重要性が確認されているが，わが国では中央値に基づく不平等指標の経済データへの適用例は殆ど無いように思われる．中央値に基づく不平等指標の経済データへの適用は，我が国の不平等研究への本研究の一つの貢献である．また，ベイズ法によって中央値に基づく不平等指標の推定を行った文献も国内外で殆どなく，この点も本研究の学術的意義である．更に，PGCの計算方法を富裕層に適用したRGCを提案し，「全国家計構造調査」のデータに適用し，2014年から2019年までの5年間の成長がpro-richであることを明らかにしたことも，量的金融緩和政策の期間の社会的評価を行う基礎を与える．
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