2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Global CGE Analysis of Free Trade Agreements and Trade War

Research Project

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Project/Area Number	19K01677
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
Allocation Type	Multi-year Fund
Section	一般
Review Section	Basic Section 07040:Economic policy-related
Research Institution	Nagoya City University
Principal Investigator	Itakura Ken 名古屋市立大学, 大学院経済学研究科, 教授 (90405217)
Project Period (FY)	2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
Keywords	CGE / 計算可能な一般均衡モデル / GVCs / グローバル・バリューチェーン / 貿易政策 / 貿易紛争 / 応用一般均衡
Outline of Final Research Achievements	As the FTAs has been increasing over the past decades, retreats from liberalizing trade have also risen, for some escalating to the U.S.'s withdrawal from TPP and to the trade war between U.S. and China. Our aim for this project was to investigate the economic effects of trade liberalization as well as trade conflict. Interlinkages of production activities across countries play an important role in affecting international trade and investment. Global value chains that capture the interlinkages were adopted in our modeling. For these objectives, we developed a recursively dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of global trade, which embodies the global value chains (GVCs) structure. We applied this model to estimate the potential economic effect of US-China trade war, and also to examine the combination effect of CPTPP and RCEP. The former was published in journal and the latter was presented at conference. We commenced to explore the sub-national effect of trade policies.
Free Research Field	国際経済
Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements	研究成果の学術的意義は、本研究が先駆的な取り組みとしてGVCs構造を備えた逐次動学型グローバルCGEモデルを開発し、分析応用したことにある。この成果により、国際的なサプライチェーンを通じて、経済連携協定や貿易摩擦の影響が当該国から他の国へ伝播する過程をより現実に即したデータとモデルで考察することが可能となった。また日本国内への影響について、都道府県を対象に地域別分析を可能とする手法の開発に着手できた。研究成果の社会的意義は、国際間の貿易政策が国と国内地域にどのような経済的影響を及ぼすのかを数量的に明らかにすることで、将来の見通しや政策対応に関する判断材料を提供することに資する点にある。