An Empirical Study on the Effects of Consumption Tax on Household Consumption Behaviors and on Disparity among Households

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K01715
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 07050:Public economics and labor economics-related
• Research Institution: Hitotsubashi University
• Principal Investigator: HORI Masahiro 一橋大学, 大学院経済学研究科, 教授 (50284667)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 家計消費 / 財政再建 / 消費税 / 付加価値税 / 税の逆進性

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In order to ensure that consumption tax (VAT) policy is based on sound evidence, this study conducted empirical analyses of Japan's consumption tax using several complementary individual survey data.
The results show that 1) there is a gap between economists' and the general public's perceptions of the VAT, with economists having positive attitudes toward the VAT and general consumers having negative attitudes toward the VAT, 2) this gap is influenced by the information media to which respondents are exposed, 3) the decline in the propensity to consume observed since the Abenomics period is not due to an increase in the VAT rate, and 4) the burden of the VAT has little to do with household wealth and the Japanese VAT is a neutral tax.

Free Research Field

経済政策、公共経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

消費税（付加価値）は、これからの日本財政の基幹財源と期待される一方、景気に与える悪影響や逆進性への懸念から、国民の支持が得られない状況が続いている。その今日的重要性にもかかわらず、我が国では消費税施策の実証分析はあまり進んでおらず、確かな根拠に基づいた政策策定（EBPM）が行えない状況にある。本研究では、そうした問題意識の下、消費に係る経済学の標準理論である恒常所得仮説と日本の消費税を組み合わせ、学術的な理論仮説の検証にとどまらず、我が国の実際の政策運営の観点からも意義深い問い（更なる消費税活用の可否）に焦点を当てた分析を行っており、学術性とともに社会的意義も少なくない研究になっている。