2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Sustainability Analysis of Japan's Public Sector Finance and Economy by State-space Model and Dynamic General Equilibrium Model
| Project/Area Number |
19K01720
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 07050:Public economics and labor economics-related
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| Research Institution | Osaka Metropolitan University (2022)
Osaka Prefecture University (2019-2021) |
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Principal Investigator |
Motonori Yoshida 大阪公立大学, 大学院経済学研究科, 教授 (60360046)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2019-04-01 – 2023-03-31
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| Keywords | 財政の持続可能性 / 財政反応関数 / AR(1) error model / Markov switching model / Breakpoints model / State-space model / Kalman filter / Threshold regression |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
I engaged in scrutinizing the Japanese public sector’s fiscal sustainability in this study. First, I implemented to assess fiscal postures of prefecture governments (PGs) with a panel dataset for FY1974-2016. Next, I elucidated chronological changes of fiscal policies with all government sectors, i.e., the general government (GG), the central government (CG), the whole of the local governments (WLG), and the whole of the social security funds (WSSF), as the analysis targets for 1976Q2-2020Q1.
This study revealed some following important facts: e.g., (1) PGs are presumed to sustainably manage their finances during the analysis term; (2) CG, WLG, and WSSF often sustainably managed their finances during the analysis term. However, GG has failed to implement a sustainable fiscal policy from the mid-1990s; (3) CG and WSSF adjusted their fiscal postures according to Japan’s economic state; (4) WLG changed its fiscal posture according to its fiscal severity.
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| Free Research Field |
財政学、経済政策
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本研究の主な学術的かつ社会的な意義は、日本の政府財政の持続可能性分析を、次の点等で精緻化させたところにある。(1)分析対象を、全政府セクター（一般政府、中央政府、地方政府、社会保障基金）とした点。(2)各政府セクターの財政運営姿勢の変化を時系列に捉えた点。(3)各政府セクターの財政運営に影響を与える政府債務残高水準以外の要因を探った点。(4)各政府セクターが財政運営姿勢を変化させる要因を明らかにした点。 また、学術的な貢献としては、時系列変化を捉える分析モデル間の性能比較を実施した点、多様な時系列分析を可能とするよう必要な財政・経済関係の4半期データを推計した点等も挙げることができる。
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