2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
A study on the effect of technology portfolio diversity on prediction power of forecasted PER
| Project/Area Number |
19K01985
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 07100:Accounting-related
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| Research Institution | Yamaguchi University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2019-04-01 – 2023-03-31
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| Keywords | 予想PER / 特許分析 / 機械学習 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
This study investigates whether and how patent portfolio, forming future business activity, is incorporated and reflected in forecasted PER provided by security analysts. Inspired by the fact that the analysts usually specialize in industry as well as the literature which argues explorative patents lead to larger forecast error, this study first describes the commonality and/or specificity of the company's patent portfolio using International Patent classification code in addition to text data while applying popular similarity measures as well as text mining technique. Then the study tests the hypothesis that more and more the patent portfolio diverges from hypothetical "average" company in an industry, larger and larger the forecast error becomes. The test suggests there may be a positive correlation between these, although the results are sensitive to sampling time frame and selected industry.
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| Free Research Field |
財務会計、技術経営
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
企業の戦略行動の株価や企業業績に与える影響を実証的に分析する場合、それらに対して九通に影響を与える要因として業種を統制変数に加えることが一般的であった。 本研究は、業種に加え技術的近似性も統制変数を加えることが頑健な実証につながるかを検討した点に学術的意義がある。 また、企業の持続的価値創造における知的資産の重要性がますます認識され、上場企業は知財活用の方針を開示することが求められている。 本研究は、証券アナリストが特許の定量的情報だけではその将来的な影響を適切に評価できない可能性を示唆し、戦略等の定性的情報提供の妥当性を補強するという意味で、社会的意義を有している。
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