A stochastic approach for empirical study of urban transport models with multiple equilibria

2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K04635
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 22050:Civil engineering plan and transportation engineering-related
• Research Institution: Tohoku University
• Principal Investigator: Nagae Takeshi 東北大学, 工学研究科, 准教授 (30379482)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 水谷 大二郎 東北大学, 工学研究科, 助教 (30813414)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: 複数均衡 / ポテンシャル・ゲーム / 動学的不確実性 / マルコフ連鎖モンテカルロ法 / ボルツマン分布

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In recent years, the structure of urban and transportation systems has been changing dramatically with the spread of new mobility and transportation services such as the shared mobility and the food delivery, as well as new lifestyles and work styles such as telework and multi-location living. For the policy making and its evaluation in consideration of such irreversible and structural changes in urban and transportation systems, we proposed a framework for quantitatively describing and analyzing the stochastic stable state of an equilibrium model of urban and transportation systems, assuming the existence of multiple equilibria. We also developed an efficient method for estimating the stationary distribution that characterizes the stable state.

Free Research Field

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Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究では，規模の経済性などによって複数の均衡解が存在し得る都市・交通均衡モデルに対し，対象が直面する動学的不確実性を明示的に考慮した上で，その定常分布を定量的に分析するための方法論を開発した．本研究成果を活用することで，たとえば「衰退しつつある地方都市に新たな公共交通サービスを導入することで再度活性化が可能か否か」といった問題に対し，2つの均衡----「多くの利用者が新交通サービスを利用し活性化する均衡」と「交通サービスがあまり利用されず衰退が進む均衡」の両方----の存在を考慮しつつ，前者がより高い確率で生起するような政策の立案や定量的評価が可能となる．