Land use plans for disaster mitigation and their medium- and long-term impacts on the local economy

2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K04969
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 25030:Disaster prevention engineering-related
• Research Institution: Kagawa University
• Principal Investigator: Kajitani Yoshio 香川大学, 創造工学部, 教授 (80371441)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: 土地利用規制 / 災害リスク / エージェントベースモデル / 人口減少

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this study, database and basic models were developed to evaluate not only the positive effects of land use regulations in disaster risk areas, but also the medium- and long-term economic negative impacts of such regulations. First, we conducted a survey on the recovery process of businesses and households from past flood disasters, and developed a statistical model to evaluate the short-term impacts on the regional economy. Furthermore, we estimated regional household attributes from census data and constructed an agent-based population projection model. By applying this model to Kagawa Prefecture, we demonstrated the possibility of shifting population concentration areas to safer areas under a declining population without causing an increase in land prices.

Free Research Field

防災計画

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究の成果は、災害による短期的な被害波及と人間活動の長期の営みを統合的に評価するという学術的課題解決の一助となる。災害被害の抑制方法を多段階で検討し、災害による被害軽減額と地域経済の長期的変化を可視化することで、より適切な政策決定を支援することができる。