2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Impacts of a natural disaster on consumer food demand: causal inference using big data and a natural experiment
| Project/Area Number |
19K06256
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 41010:Agricultural and food economics-related
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| Research Institution | Tottori University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
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| Keywords | 因果推論 / カップ麺需要 / 差の差分析 / 自然実験 / 大規模自然災害 / 平均因果効果 / 平行トレンド仮定 / ホームスキャンデータ |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
This study investigates the impacts of a large-scale natural disaster on the demand for non-perishable food, drawing a causal inference based on difference-in-differences (DID) analysis of aggregate homescan data. The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake is used as a natural experiment inducing increase in the demand for pot noodles. The DID analysis is performed through a multiple regression model to control all known variables affecting the outcome. The results find a statistically significant causal effect of the earthquake on the demand for pot noodles in Kumamoto prefecture as well as its effect on the pot noodle demand all over Japan. The causal effect in Kumamoto prefecture is much larger in the month of the earthquake than in the months afterward. The effect on the demand all over the country is found to be canceled out gradually over about half a year by a decreasing trend.
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| Free Research Field |
農業経済学
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
日本では元々，その位置，地形，地質，気象などの自然条件のため，地震，噴火，台風などによる自然災害の発生が海外に比べて多いことが知られている．さらに，近年は異常気象による大規模な風水害や土砂災害が多発している．自然災害の発生は人々の生活に直接的・間接的に影響するが，消費者の食料需要にはどのような影響を与えるのか．本研究は，熊本地震がカップ麺の需要に与えた影響を，自然実験による因果推論を用いて明らかにした．
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