Development and International Comparison of a Hospital Financial Distress Prediction Model Using Common Standards between Japan and the United States

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K10561
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 58010:Medical management and medical sociology-related
• Research Institution: Fukushima Medical University
• Principal Investigator: Tsuboi Satoshi 福島県立医科大学, 医学部, 博士研究員 (20453011)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 病院経営 / 財務諸表 / 医療管理 / 経営管理 / 病院管理 / 経営危機

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Currently, hospital closures have become a common issue in advanced countries, affecting not only the hospitals themselves but also stakeholders involved in managing the healthcare system, such as administrative bodies and financial institutions that provide funding. This study aims to identify the factors predicting financial crisis in hospitals in Japan. The target of the study includes medical corporations managing hospitals. Upon examining the reliability of financial statements of medical corporations, it was found that the data presented reliability issues, making it difficult to cross-reference with other data. Additionally, it was discovered that observational studies, including those conducted over time, were difficult to implement. In case-control studies, a negative correlation was observed between the percentage of operating profit to sales and insolvency, while debts to sales showed a positive correlation with insolvency.

Free Research Field

医療管理

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究では、医療法人の財務諸表データの信頼性を検証し、その後、病院の経営危機を予測する要因を探索した。その結果、医療法人の財務諸表データの信頼性には問題があり、現状では、発展的な研究が実施できないことが示された。債務超過を防ぐ要因としては、売上に対する営業利益の割合が、また、債務超過を促進する要因としては、売上に対する負債の割合が見いだされた。
本研究は、地域住民が将来も安心して医療を享受できる社会の実現を支援する研究として位置づけられる。本研究によって、病院と利害関係者との間に共通認識が築かれ、関係者らの協働による病院経営の管理が促進されることが期待できる。