2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Development of a prediction model for long-term sick leave based on the stress check system and its related analyses
| Project/Area Number |
19K10643
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 58030:Hygiene and public health-related: excluding laboratory approach
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| Research Institution | Kyoto University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
大久保 靖司 東京大学, 環境安全本部, 教授 (00301094)
小林 大介 京都大学, 環境安全保健機構, 助教 (00764911)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2019-04-01 – 2023-03-31
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| Keywords | ストレスチェック / 休職 / 予測モデル / ＲＯＣ曲線 / 産業保健 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
To predict long-term psychiatric sick leaves, the answers of the stress check were compared between the employees with such sick leave and sex-, age-, and occupa-tion-matched employees without it in 22 universities.
Six items were identified as independent predictors and a prediction model was developed. The area under the curve of the model was 0.768 (95% confidence interval: 0.723-0.813), which were somewhat superior to the total score of stressors and supports and that of stress responses. The prediction model was validated in the validation sample.
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| Free Research Field |
衛生学・公衆衛生学
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
ストレスチェックが法律で義務化されたが、その予後との関連は十分に検証されていなかった。本研究では、ストレスチェックとその後の休職との関連を分析し、休職予測性能を評価した。その結果、57項目中のたった6問でよりよい休職予測ができることが示された。しかし、それでも職場で休職を予測する能力は十分に高いとはいえず、ストレスチェックの質問票や実施方法についてさらなる検討が必要と思われた。
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