Simulation model for reducing disease burdan by improving lifestyle and health examination in a Japanese population

2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K10672
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 58030:Hygiene and public health-related: excluding laboratory approach
• Research Institution: Toho University
• Principal Investigator: Murakami Yoshitaka 東邦大学, 医学部, 教授 (90305855)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: シミュレーション / 生活習慣 / 健康診断

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We constructed a simulation model for reducing the burden of disease by improving lifestyle and health checkup items in the Japanese population. The models were used for quantifying the change in the burden of disease (specifically, the change in the number of deaths) when the population distribution of these risk factors was changed (reduced) for hypertension and high serum cholesterol. Our results showed that a 2 mmHg decrease in the population mean of systolic blood pressure for the entire population resulted in a decrease in stroke deaths of 1378 men and 710 women, and a decrease in CHD deaths of 2236 men and 2005 women. For a 2% reduction in total serum cholesterol in participants with 240 mg/dl, the reduction in CHD deaths was 1074 in men and 333 in women.

Free Research Field

公衆衛生学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究で開発した方法論および成果については日本の保健医療政策、具体的には、これからの健康づくり運動（健康日本21）における危険因子の目標設定の参考となる基本資料作成に貢献すると考える。また今回検討したような、国民全体の収縮期血圧の変化の影響をシミュレーションにより定量化できた実績は、これからの危険因子の疾患死亡の影響解析の定量化に道筋をつけたものである。このように本研究の成果は学術的・社会的の両面で意義のあるものと考える。