Macroeconomic Dynamics and Big-data Analytics

2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K13649
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 07010:Economic theory-related
• Research Institution: Yokohama City University
• Principal Investigator: Nakazono Yoshiyuki 横浜市立大学, 国際マネジメント研究科, 客員准教授 (10707483)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: マクロ経済学

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research project uses large-scale private-sector big data to reveal heterogeneous macroeconomic dynamics across households. First, we find that households' inflation expectations respond to changes in the prices of goods they purchase regularly. Second, we find that households increase their current consumption when inflation expectations rise. Third, we find that households reduce their consumption levels by more than 2% at retirement and that this decline persists for at least two years. The results suggest that the use of private-sector big data may provide an opportunity to open new avenues for economics research.

Free Research Field

マクロ経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究課題では、大規模民間ビッグデータを用いて家計ごとに異質的なマクロ経済動学を明らかにしました。家計ごとに異質的な経済ショックと同様にマクロ経済ショックも家計に与える影響が異質的であるという本研究の結果は、家計ごとに異なる政策手当に対して科学的な根拠を与えるものです。また本研究の結果は民間ビッグデータの活用が経済学研究の新たな地平を拓くきっかけとなり得ることを示唆しています。