Empirical Investigation of Macroeconomic Effects of Economic Policy under Zero Lower Bound

2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K13652
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 07010:Economic theory-related
• Research Institution: Hosei University
• Principal Investigator: Morita Hiroshi 法政大学, 経済学部, 准教授 (70732759)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: 財政政策 / 時系列分析

Outline of Final Research Achievements

For investigating the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy, I’ve mainly addressed (i) the development of a time-varying parameters vector autoregressive model that explicitly allows the nonlinear situation occurred in the zero lower bound of nominal interest rates and (ii) the construction of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model consisting of multiple types of agents such as rule-of-thumb households and retirees. As a result, I found that the fiscal multiplier increases under a zero lower bound and that the fiscal multiplier may decrease with an aging population. These research outcomes have been published in one book, one peer-reviewed academic journal, and 27 presentations at academic conferences (18 of which were international conferences).

Free Research Field

マクロ経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究課題で得られたいずれの結果も、長く経済停滞が続き、また、少子高齢化が進んでいる我が国の実際の経済政策の運営に関連するものであり、一定の示唆を与えるものであると考えられる。また、このような研究成果を広く海外を含めた学術会議の場で発信したことは学術的に意義が深いことである。さらに、本研究で開発した計量モデルやマクロ経済モデルは今回分析対象とした経済事情以外にも幅広く応用可能な手法となっている。