Economic Analyses of Tobacco Purchasing Behavior Using Large-Scale Consumer Panel Data

2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K13717
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 07050:Public economics and labor economics-related
• Research Institution: Hitotsubashi University
• Principal Investigator: YAO Ying 一橋大学, 社会科学高等研究院, 特任講師 (30810915)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: Tobacco control policies / Product affordability / Product availability / Consumer behavior

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Using large-scale nationally representative consumer panel data in Japan, this study examined the effects of a tax increase and restricting product availability on consumers' product choice and consumption of cigarettes. Regarding the effect of the tax increase, a short-term decrease in cigarette purchases was observed, but this reduction was associated with stockpiling prior to the tax increase. In addition, unlike previous studies, consumers did not switch to higher tar/nicotine products after the tax increase to compensate for losing nicotine levels because of reduced consumption. The adverse health effects remained the same. Regarding the effects of restricting product availability, we found that smokers not only purchased fewer cigarettes but also chose products with less tar and nicotine content. In contrast to tax increases, the effects of interventions that limit product availability can persist over time.

Free Research Field

医療経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

喫煙抑制のために世界中であらゆる政策介入が行われている。中でも、課税は喫煙を減らすための一般的で費用対効果の高い政策と考えられている。その一方、これらの増税政策の効果は短期的には大きいものの、長期的には必ずしも効果が持続しないことが分かっている。したがって増税は喫煙を減らすための万能薬ではなく、製品の入手制限など、長期的に喫煙量を減らす可能性のある政策も選択肢として検討する必要がある。そのような政策はこれまでほとんどなかったため、本研究の結果は今後のタバコ政策を考えるうえで重要な基礎的エビデンスを提供していると考えられる。