Empirical Study on Voter Behavior and the Reflection of Public Opinion in Policy

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K13718
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 07050:Public economics and labor economics-related
• Research Institution: Aoyama Gakuin University (2020-2023); Hitotsubashi University (2019)
• Principal Investigator: Okabe Tomohito 青山学院大学, 国際政治経済学部, 准教授 (50768364)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 投票行動 / 経済成長 / 政治経済

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study aims to elucidate the mechanism by which public opinion is reflected in policy decisions. The verification of the life cycle hypothesis used data from long-term panel surveys in the UK to confirm that life events such as marriage and family formation have a significant impact on voter turnout. In particular, marriage, children, residential stability, and homeownership were identified as important factors influencing voting behavior. Additionally, the development of a political-economic model for Africa clarified the mechanisms between the degree of democracy and economic growth, identifying key factors for the cessation of civil wars and the advancement of economic development. Simulations of countries that have experienced long-term civil wars demonstrated that achieving a peaceful state can improve economic welfare by 30-80% and economic growth rates by 2-8 times.

Free Research Field

政治経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究は、民主主義と経済パフォーマンスとの関係についての理解を深めるという学術的意義がある。ライフサイクル仮説の検証では、投票行動の誘因としてのライフイベントの重要性を示し、政治経済学の実証的な知見の提供に貢献した。アフリカの政治経済モデルの提案では、今まであまり明らかにされてこなかった内戦と経済成長の同時決定メカニズムを示し、紛争解決や経済政策の設計に役立つ具体的な知見を提供した。これらの知見によって、本研究は有権者の政治参加促進、平和構築および経済発展に向けた政策立案に貢献し、現代社会の課題解決に寄与するものである。