Precise prediction of operational flight trajectory for four-dimensional management of air traffic flow

2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K15116
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 22050:Civil engineering plan and transportation engineering-related
• Research Institution: Kochi University of Technology
• Principal Investigator: Harada Akinori 高知工科大学, システム工学群, 准教授 (70785112)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: 航空交通流管理 / 軌道予測 / 定点通過時刻予測 / 軌道最適化 / 運航効率向上

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The flight profiles generated by flight management systems (FMSs) are necessary for accurate prediction of flight time on the ground side. In this research, an accurate trajectory prediction method was developed with the aim of reproducing trajectories identical to those generated by FMSs on board. A significant feature of the proposed method is that the flight profiles of FMS can be replicated with sufficient accuracy using economic-optimal trajectories with a proposed parameter, pseudo cost index (PCI), determined based on the aircraft mass, calibrated airspeed, and wind velocities at the cruise altitude, which can be obtained at an early stage of flights.
The analysis results indicated that the flight time can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy by the proposed method even in the cases of comparatively long distances over 500 km while suppressing the effects by a seasonal variation on the flight time.

Free Research Field

航空交通管理

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

我が国の航空交通において時間ベースでの交通流管理の実現が求められている。航空機の定点通過時刻を地上側で精度良く予測するためには高精度な軌道予測技術が必要である。本研究では経済指標を評価関数として得た最適軌道を用いることで、比較的長距離先の点までの飛行時間を、季節的な変動によらず良好な精度で予測可能であることを明らかにした。本研究の成果は、航空交通流管理のための軌道予測の精度向上に貢献するものである。