2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Development of Probabilistic Cost-Benefit Assessment Method for Formal Safety Assessment (FSA)
Project/Area Number |
19K15230
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Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
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Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
Review Section |
Basic Section 24020:Marine engineering-related
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Research Institution | National Institute of Maritime, Port and Aviation Technology |
Principal Investigator |
Yuzui Tomohiro 国立研究開発法人海上・港湾・航空技術研究所, その他部局等, 研究員 (80586694)
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Project Period (FY) |
2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
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Keywords | FSA / 費用対効果評価 / ベイズ推定 / 規制評価 / 統計的生命価値 |
Outline of Final Research Achievements |
This study developed a probabilistic Cost-Benefit Assessment method for Formal Safety Assessment (FSA), a rule-making tool used in the IMO (International Maritime Organization). Firstly, actual values of GCAFs, which is an index used for cost-benefit assessment for FSA, of AIS and ECDIS were estimated from the casualty database. Next, it was assumed that CAFthr, which is a threshold used for cost-benefit assessment for FSA, follows a normal distribution, and the above-mentioned actual values of GCAFs were used as likelihood, and the probabilistic distribution of CAFthr was obtained by Bayesian estimation. Finally, using the probabilistic distribution of CAFthr, a probabilistic Cost-Benefit Assessment method for FSA was developed.
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Free Research Field |
船舶工学
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Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本研究では、国際海事機関IMO(International Maritime Organization)における規則制定ツールであるFSA(Formal Safety Assessment)の費用対効果評価を確率論的に実施する手法を開発した。これまでのFSAの費用対効果評価は、点推定値により実施されており、学術的にも社会的にも十分に検討されていなかった。本研究は、それを確率論的に実施することを可能とし、学術的に世界初の試みである。これを実際のFSAにも適用することで、これまでよりも精緻な費用対効果評価が実施可能となり、社会的にも意義が大きなものである。
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