Examining reasonable worst case scenarios: Case of nuclear disaster risk management

2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K15271
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 25030:Disaster prevention engineering-related
• Research Institution: Kansai University
• Principal Investigator: Sugawara Shin-etsu 関西大学, 社会安全学部, 准教授 (70638006)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: 原子力安全 / 安全目標 / 最悪シナリオ / リスク評価 / 予測シミュレーション / 原子力災害

Outline of Final Research Achievements

While worst case scenarios and predictive simulations are expected to play a crucial role in nuclear and public health emergencies, there are many challenges in calibrating and contextualizing them in the science-policy interfaces. Taking nuclear disasters and COVID-19 as examples, this study examines how those scenarios and simulations are mobilized and abandoned, as well as how their uncertainties are represented and perceived among several actors, reflecting the knowledge and perspectives of nuclear science, science and technology studies, and philosophy of technology.

Free Research Field

原子力学、科学技術社会論

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

最悪シナリオや予測シミュレーションは、原子力災害やパンデミックなどの緊急時において、起こりうる将来像を「科学的」に描くための強力なツールとして社会的・政治的に大きな注目を集めるが、その数値の解釈や活用方法等をめぐり、しばしば激しい論争が生じる。本研究は、そのような評価や予測をめぐる期待や摩擦がどのように生じるのかを、過去の事例をもとに明らかにし、類似の目的で開発される評価・予測手法の研究や実装における示唆を導出した。