Modeling the potential impact of vaccination on Ebola virus disease epidemic

2019 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K19343
• Research Institution: Hokkaido University
• Principal Investigator: Lee Hyojung 北海道大学, 医学研究院, 助教 (40823365)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2020-03-31
• Keywords: Ebola virus disease / Forecasting / Reporting delay / Reproduction number

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic occurred in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) from 2018-19 was analyzed.
The EVD epidemic including spatial heterogeneities and vaccination was forecasted in real time. We estimated the future reproduction numbers accounting for the reporting delay. This work was published as follows:
A.R. Akhmetzhanov*, H Lee*, S.M. Jung, et. al, Analyzing and forecasting the Ebola incidence in North Kivu, the Democratic Republic of the Congo from 2018-19 in real time, Epidemics, 27, 123-131, 2019 (* represents the co-first author)

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Analyzing and forecasting the Ebola incidence in North Kivu, the Democratic Republic of the Congo from 2018-19 in real time (2019)
  • Author(s): Akhmetzhanov AR*, Lee H*, Jung SM, Kayano T, Yuan B, Nishiura H (* represents co-first author)
  • Journal Title: Epidemics Volume: 27 Pages: 123-131
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2019.05.002
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access