Establishment of prediction model for pregnancy and live births among women receiving assisted reproductive technology in Japan.

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K19362
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 58010:Medical management and medical sociology-related
• Research Institution: Saitama Medical University
• Principal Investigator: Jwa Seung Chik 埼玉医科大学, 医学部, 非常勤講師 (60819126)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 体外受精 / 顕微授精 / 生殖補助医療 / 妊娠 / 流産 / 予測モデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

A prospective study was conducted to create a prediction model for assisted reproductive medical treatment (ART) patients on live births. The study included 741 first-time treatment patients, and collected information on the outcome of childbirth at one and two years. 344 patients had given birth at the one-year survey. In the second survey, a cumulative total of 512 (69.1% of first-time registrants) had given birth. A prediction model was developed based on the first treatment information as well as patient background information such as age. Using the prediction model, it is possible to predict the subsequent live birth rate among first-time treatment patients undergoing ART based on the patient's own background information and initial treatment information, and the prediction accuracy was found to be relatively favorable. This model can be used to support the decision-making process of patients undergoing treatment and to help them decide whether to continue treatment.

Free Research Field

公衆衛生学、疫学、産婦人科学、生殖内分泌学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究に得られた予測モデルを用いることで、生殖補助医療を受けた初回治療患者において、患者自身の背景情報や初回の治療情報からその後の出産率を予測することが可能であり、予測精度は比較的良好であることが明らかとなった。本予測モデルを用いることで、治療を受ける患者の意志決定支援や治療継続の判断につながる可能性がある。今後は本予測モデルを社会実装するため、医療機器等の開発につなげる予定である。