2019 Fiscal Year Research-status Report
A systematic assessment on the seasonality of mortality: a multicountry time series study
| Project/Area Number |
19K19461
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| Research Institution | Nagasaki University |
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Principal Investigator |
マダニヤズ リナ 長崎大学, 熱帯医学研究所, 助教 (30835195)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
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| Keywords | seasonality / mortality / temperature / climate change / multi countries / time series study |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
The aim of this research is to assess seasonality of mortality systematically and to explore how it may be impacted by ambient temperature under a changing climate, by using sophisticated statistical models to analyse time series daily data from multiple countries.
In 2019, I collected daily data on temperature and mortality for 704 cities from 34 countries. Then I used data from Japan to develop models to assess seasonality of mortality and to investigate the effect of temperature in the context of a changing climate. The results were presented to colleagues at conferences and seminars, which will be submitted to journal. I have also started descriptive analysis of data for other countries.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.
Reason
1. Data collection was finished successfully on time.
2. I've been attending conferences and seminars to present my preliminary findings in 2019. I am able to discuss with my colleagues smoothly and get feedbacks and suggestions. It helps me to improve my data analysis and model development. Therefore, it is generally progressing.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
1. Finish and submit two manuscripts from current findings in FY2019 to academic journals in FY2020.
2. Finish the analysis for the remaining data.
3. Draft the manuscript for multi-cities from multi-countries.
4. Attend conferences and seminars to present and discuss ongoing progress.
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| Causes of Carryover |
Due to the pandemic of COVID19, the planned business trips in FY2019 were canceled. Therefore, I was not able to attend conferences and seminars because of COVID19.
For FY2020, (1) I plan to submit several papers to academic journals, which may need publishing charge and cost for language editing; (2) I will join conferences and seminars to present research findings; (3) I will buy items for data storage and analysis (e.g., USB drives and books).
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[Presentation] Seasonality of mortality in Japan under a changing climate2020
Author(s)
Lina Madaniyazi, Yeonseung Chung, Yoonhee Kim, Chris Fook Sheng Ng, Yasuhi Honda, Masahiro Hashizume
Organizer
Climate change, Air pollution, Interaction, Health, Projection, Adaptation
Invited
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