2020 Fiscal Year Research-status Report
A systematic assessment on the seasonality of mortality: a multicountry time series study
| Project/Area Number |
19K19461
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| Research Institution | Nagasaki University |
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Principal Investigator |
マダニヤズ リナ 長崎大学, 熱帯医学研究所, 助教 (30835195)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
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| Keywords | seasonality / mortality / temperature / climate chaneg / multi countries / time series study |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
The aim of this research is to assess seasonality of mortality systematically and to explore how it may be impacted by ambient temperature under a changing climate, by using sophisticated statistical models to analyse time series daily data from multiple countries.
In 2020, I finished data analysis for multiple cities from multiple countries and summarised the results in three research papers. The first paper examined seasonality of mortality in Japan and the impact of climate change on its temporal changes, and this paper has been submitted to Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine. The second paper investigated the role of influenza and temperature in the seasonal variation of mortality in Japan, which has been submitted to BMJ Open. The third paper included 138 868 448 deaths from all or non-external causes in 719 locations in 34 countries, 39 777 149 deaths from cardiovascular diseases, and 12 805 050 deaths from respiratory mortality in 519 locations in 22 countries; the seasonal variation in mortality and the contribution of temperature was investigated in these locations. To our knowledge, this is by far the largest study on seasonality of mortality. The third paper has been submitted to International Journal of Epidemiology. Currently, these papers are under review. Furthermore, I have presented the results to colleagues at local and international online seminars.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.
Reason
1. Data collection and analysis was finished successfully on time.
2. I have wrote three original research papers and submitted to academic journals.
3. I have attended several seminars to present my results and discuss with my collaborators and colleagues.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
1. Reply to the comments from the reviewers and re-submit the papers.
2. Prepare the forth manuscript to discuss the methodologies used on the current topic.
3. Attend conferences and seminars to summarise the progress and explore the directions for future studies.
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| Causes of Carryover |
Due to the COVID19 pandemic, several business trips in FY2020 were canceled. Therefore, I was not able to travel overseas to attend conferences.
For FY2021, (1) I have submitted several papers to academic journals, and the article processing charges will be paid to journals after acceptance; (2) I am preparing another manuscript on the methodology. Therefore, I plan to buy a few books on bio-statistics, edit the language before submission, and pay for the article processing charges.
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Research Products
(4 results)
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[Journal Article] Seasonal variation in mortality and the role of temperature: a multi-country multi-city study2021
Author(s)
Lina Madaniyazi, Ben Armstrong, Yeonseung Chung, Chris Fook Sheng Ng, Xerxes Seposo, Yoonhee Kim, Aurelio Tobias, Yuming Guo, Francesco Sera, Yasushi Honda, Antonio Gasparrini, Masahiro Hashizume, Multi-country Multi-city (MCC) Collaborative Research Network
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Journal Title
International Journal of Epidemiology
Volume: 51
Pages: 122～133
DOI
Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
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[Journal Article] Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 20152021
Author(s)
Lina Madaniyazi, Yeonseung Chung, Yoonhee Kim, Aurelio Tobias, Chris Fook Sheng Ng, Xerxes Seposo, Yuming Guo, Yasushi Honda, Antonio Gasparrini, Ben Armstrong, Masahiro Hashizume
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Journal Title
Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine
Volume: -
Pages: -
Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
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