2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Prediction models and generating causal structure hypotheses for cognitive decline in patients with chronic kidney disease
| Project/Area Number |
19K20198
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 59040:Nutrition science and health science-related
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| Research Institution | National Cardiovascular Center Research Institute (2020-2021)
Fujita Health University (2019) |
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Principal Investigator |
Ogata Soshiro 国立研究開発法人国立循環器病研究センター, 研究所, 室長 (00805012)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
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| Keywords | 認知機能 / IADL / 慢性腎臓病 / 予測モデル / 因果構造探索 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
This study collected the following information from chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients: clinical background information at each clinic visit, and cognitive function scores, activity of daily living, and depressive symptom scores approximately per 6 months. We used a mediated analysis model to examine causal structure. We found significant association of CKD stage progression with low cognitive score. Additionally, this association was explained by instrumental-ADL decline, approximately 20%, suggesting that preventing instrumental-ADL decline in CKD patients may partially prevent cognitive function decline associated with CKD stage progression. Furthermore, a prediction model for cognitive decline was developed using an AI/machine learning model and information that can be easily collected in daily medical practice (accuracy of about 80%). AI can determine if a patient's cognitive function is declining at the time of medical examination.
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| Free Research Field |
疫学
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
認知症は発症すると回復困難なため早期発見・予防が重要である。認知症の高リスク群として慢性腎臓病(CKD)患者がある。しかし、CKD患者に特化した認知機能低下の早期発見・予防方策は確立していなかった。本研究は、CKD患者の多岐に渡る診療情報を経時的に収集し、最新の統計手法や機械学習を活用し、CKD患者を対象とする認知機能低下予測モデルを開発した。加え、CKDステージ進展と認知機能低下の因果構造を踏まえ、CKD患者の認知機能低下予防モデルを提案した。開発したモデルによりCKD患者の認知機能低下を早期発見し、instrumental ADL改善により認知機能低下予防を実現する診療モデルを提案した。
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