An analysis of the association between sexually transmitted diseases

2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K20393
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 62010:Life, health and medical informatics-related
• Research Institution: Hokkaido University
• Principal Investigator: Omori Ryosuke 北海道大学, 人獣共通感染症国際共同研究所, 准教授 (10746952)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: 感染症疫学 / 数理モデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Associations between sexually transmitted infections are not understood well so far. Also, the outbreak risk of STIs are difficult to evaluate due to difficulty in measuring and quantifying the sexual network. In this project, we assessed these associations and quantifying STI epidemic potential using mathematical modeling. To this end, an individual-based mathematical model was constructed to describe sex partnering and STI concurrent transmission of HIV, herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), gonorrhea, chlamydia, and syphilis. Model parametrization was done using representative biological and behavioral data. Associations were assessed on model-simulated STI prevalences. Sexual networks affect STIs in variable ways, leading to rich dynamics and varying associations between STIs. The understanding of the prevalences of STIs can be predictive of that of another STI. Especially for HIV, prevalence of other STIs can be used as an objective biomarker for HIV outbreak potential.

Free Research Field

理論疫学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

性感染症の流行の特徴の一つとして感染リスクは人により大きく異る事があり、流行の制御のためには、感染リスクが高い集団を見つけ出し介入することが必要である。性感染症の感染リスクは性行動に起因するが、性行動の計測は一般的には困難であり、高リスクである集団を見つけ出すことが難しい。本研究は、性感染症の感染リスクを性行動の計測を介さず性感染症の流行から高リスク集団を見つけ出す手法の確立に貢献した。