2020 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report
Assessing the contribution of transport electrification to climate change mitigation: An integrated modeling methodology
| Project/Area Number |
19K20507
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| Research Institution | Hiroshima University |
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Principal Investigator |
張 潤森 広島大学, 先進理工系科学研究科(国), 助教 (50785235)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2019-04-01 – 2021-03-31
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| Keywords | scenario simulation / energy consumption / emissions / mitigation cost |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
By using a coupled transport-economic-climate model, a set of scenarios was created to investigate the long-term impacts under various EV technology assumptions and energy policy schemes. We conducted scenario simulations to depict the role of transport electrification in climate change mitigation and how the transport sector would interact with the energy system. The results showed that transport electrification without the replacement of fossil fuel power plants leads to the unfortunate result of increasing emissions instead of achieving a low-carbon transition. While transport electrification alone would not contribute to climate change mitigation, it is interesting to note that switching to electrified road transport under the sustainable shared socioeconomic pathways permitted an optimistic outlook for a low-carbon transition, even in the absence of a decarbonized power sector. Another interesting finding was that the stringent penetration of EVs can reduce the mitigation cost generated by the two-degree climate stabilization target, implying a positive impact for transport policies on the economic system. With technological innovations such as electrified road transport, climate change mitigation does not have to occur at the expense of economic growth.
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